A Trustworthy Industrial Fault Diagnosis Architecture Integrating Probabilistic Models and Large Language Models

Abstract: There are limitations of traditional methods and deep learning methods in terms of interpretability, generalization, and quantification of uncertainty in industrial fault diagnosis, and there are core problems of insufficient credibility in industrial fault diagnosis. The architecture performs preliminary analysis through a Bayesian network-based diagnostic engine and features an LLM-driven cognitive quorum module with multimodal input capabilities. The module conducts expert-level arbitration of initial diagnoses by analyzing structured features and diagnostic charts, prioritizing final decisions after conflicts are identified. To ensure the reliability of the system output, the architecture integrates a confidence calibration module based on temperature calibration and a risk assessment module, which objectively quantifies the reliability of the system using metrics such as expected calibration error (ECE). Experimental results on a dataset containing multiple fault types showed that the proposed framework improved diagnostic accuracy by more than 28 percentage points compared to the baseline model, while the calibrated ECE was reduced by more than 75%. Case studies have confirmed that HCAA effectively corrects misjudgments caused by complex feature patterns or knowledge gaps in traditional models, providing novel and practical engineering solutions for building high-trust, explainable AI diagnostic systems for industrial applications.