Collaborative Indirect Treatment Comparisons with Multiple Distributed Single-arm Trials (2509.23664v1)

Abstract: When randomized controlled trials are impractical or unethical to simultaneously compare multiple treatments, indirect treatment comparisons using single-arm trials offer valuable evidence for health technology assessments, especially for rare diseases and early-phase drug development. In practice, each sponsor conducts a single-arm trial on its own drug with restricted data-sharing and targets effects in its trial population, which can lead to unfair comparisons. This motivates methods for fair treatment comparisons across a range of target populations in distributed networks of single-arm trials sharing only aggregated data. Existing federated methods, which assume at least one site contains all treatments and allow pooling of treatment groups within the same site, cannot address this problem. We propose a novel distributed augmented calibration weighting (DAC) method to simultaneously estimate the pairwise average treatment effects (ATEs) across all trial population combinations in a distributed network of multiple single-arm trials. Using two communication rounds, DAC estimators balance covariates via calibration weighting, incorporate flexible nuisance parameter estimation, achieve doubly robust consistency, and yield results identical to pooled-data analysis. When nuisance parameters are estimated parametrically, DAC estimators are enhanced to achieve doubly robust inference with minimal squared first-order asymptotic bias. Simulations and a real-data application show good performance.