Persistent Gaps, Partial Gains: A Population-Level Study of COVID-19 Learning Inequalities in the Netherlands

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted schooling worldwide, raising concerns about widening educational inequalities. Using population-level administrative data from the Netherlands (N = 1,471,217), this study examines how socio-economic disparities in secondary school performance evolved before, during, and after pandemic-related school closures. We analyze final central examination scores for cohorts graduating between 2017 and 2023 across four educational tracks, estimating generalized linear models with interactions between pandemic exposure and key stratification variables: parental education, household income, migration background, and urbanicity. Results show that while average performance partially recovered by 2023, inequalities by parental education and migration background persisted or intensified, particularly in vocational tracks. First-generation students with a non-Western background experienced the largest sustained losses, whereas students in rural areas (previously disadvantaged) narrowed or reversed pre-pandemic performance gaps. Findings suggest that systemic shocks can both exacerbate and recalibrate inequality patterns, depending on the socio-demographic dimension and educational context. We discuss implications for stratification theory, highlighting the role of educational pathways and local contexts in shaping resilience to crisis-induced learning disruptions.