SynthIPD: assumption-lean synthetic individual patient data generation (2509.16466v1)

Abstract: Individual patient data (IPD) are essential for statistical inference in clinical research. However, privacy concerns, high data-sharing costs, and restrictive access often make IPD unavailable. Conventional synthetic data generation usually relies on black box models such as generative adversial networks. These methods, however, requires a large piece of IPD for model training, may be ungeneralizable and lacks interpretability. This paper introduces an assumption-lean, three-step methodology for generating synthetic IPD with survival endpoints only based on published clinical trial articles. The method mainly leverages Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves with at-risk/censoring information and subgroup-level summary statistics. It digitizes the KM curve using Scalable Vector Graphics (SVG) beyond pixel accuracy and then generates synthetic covariates based on the statistics. We illustrate the method's potential through $2$ detailed case studies and simulation studies. The method offers important implications, enabling high-fidelity IPD generation to support evidence-based medical decisions.