Tabular foundation model for GEOAI benchmark problems BM/AirportSoilProperties/2/2025 (2509.03191v1)

Abstract: This paper presents a novel application of the Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Network (TabPFN) - a transformer-based foundation model for tabular data - to geotechnical site characterization problems defined in the GEOAI benchmark BM/AirportSoilProperties/2/2025. Two tasks are addressed: (1) predicting the spatial variation of undrained shear strength (su) across borehole depth profiles, and (2) imputing missing mechanical parameters in a dense-site dataset. We apply TabPFN in a zero-training, few-shot, in-context learning setting - without hyper-parameter tuning - and provide it with additional context from the big indirect database (BID). The study demonstrates that TabPFN, as a general-purpose foundation model, achieved superior accuracy and well-calibrated predictive distributions compared to a conventional hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM) baseline, while also offering significant gains in inference efficiency. In Benchmark Problem #1 (spatial su prediction), TabPFN outperformed the HBM in prediction accuracy and delivered an order-of-magnitude faster runtime. In Benchmark Problem #2 (missing mechanical parameter imputation), TabPFN likewise achieved lower RMSE for all target parameters with well-quantified uncertainties, though its cumulative computation cost was higher than HBM's due to its one-variable-at-a-time inference. These results mark the first successful use of a tabular foundation model in geotechnical modeling, suggesting a potential paradigm shift in probabilistic site characterization.