Robust Deep Monte Carlo Counterfactual Regret Minimization: Addressing Theoretical Risks in Neural Fictitious Self-Play (2509.00923v1)

Abstract: Monte Carlo Counterfactual Regret Minimization (MCCFR) has emerged as a cornerstone algorithm for solving extensive-form games, but its integration with deep neural networks introduces scale-dependent challenges that manifest differently across game complexities. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of how neural MCCFR component effectiveness varies with game scale and proposes an adaptive framework for selective component deployment. We identify that theoretical risks such as nonstationary target distribution shifts, action support collapse, variance explosion, and warm-starting bias have scale-dependent manifestation patterns, requiring different mitigation strategies for small versus large games. Our proposed Robust Deep MCCFR framework incorporates target networks with delayed updates, uniform exploration mixing, variance-aware training objectives, and comprehensive diagnostic monitoring. Through systematic ablation studies on Kuhn and Leduc Poker, we demonstrate scale-dependent component effectiveness and identify critical component interactions. The best configuration achieves final exploitability of 0.0628 on Kuhn Poker, representing a 60% improvement over the classical framework (0.156). On the more complex Leduc Poker domain, selective component usage achieves exploitability of 0.2386, a 23.5% improvement over the classical framework (0.3703) and highlighting the importance of careful component selection over comprehensive mitigation. Our contributions include: (1) a formal theoretical analysis of risks in neural MCCFR, (2) a principled mitigation framework with convergence guarantees, (3) comprehensive multi-scale experimental validation revealing scale-dependent component interactions, and (4) practical guidelines for deployment in larger games.