On the Use of Weighting for Personalized and Transparent Evidence Synthesis

Abstract: Over the past few decades, statistical methods for causal inference have made impressive strides, enabling progress across a range of scientific fields. However, these methodological advances have often been confined to individual studies, limiting their ability to draw more generalizable conclusions. Achieving a thorough understanding of cause and effect typically relies on the integration, reconciliation, and synthesis from diverse study designs and multiple data sources. Furthermore, it is crucial to direct this synthesis effort toward understanding the effect of treatments for specific patient populations. To address these challenges, we present a weighting framework for evidence synthesis that handles both individual- and aggregate-level data, encompassing and extending conventional regression-based meta-analysis methods. We use this approach to tailor meta-analyses, targeting the covariate profiles of patients in a target population in a sample-bounded manner, thereby enhancing their personalization and robustness. We propose a technique to detect studies that meaningfully deviate from the target population, suggesting when it might be prudent to exclude them from the analysis. We establish multiple consistency conditions and demonstrate asymptotic normality for the proposed estimator. We illustrate this approach using simulated and real data.