Multicycle dynamics and high-codimension bifurcations in SIRS epidemic models with cubic psychological saturated incidence

Abstract: This study investigates bifurcation dynamics in an SIRS epidemic model with cubic saturated incidence, extending the quadratic saturation framework established by Lu, Huang, Ruan, and Yu (Journal of Differential Equations, 267, 2019). We rigorously prove the existence of codimension-three Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations and degenerate Hopf bifurcations, demonstrating, for the first time in epidemiological modeling, the coexistence of three limit cycles. By innovatively applying singularity theory, we characterize the topology of the bifurcation set through the local unfolding of singularities and the identification of nondegenerate singularities for fronts. Our results reveal that cubic nonlinearities induce significantly richer dynamical structures than quadratic models under both monotonic and nonmonotonic saturation. Numerical simulations verify three limit cycles in monotonic parameter regimes and two limit cycles in nonmonotonic regimes. This work advances existing bifurcation research by incorporating higher-order interactions and comprehensive singularity analysis, thereby providing a mathematical foundation for decoding complex transmission mechanisms that are critical to the design of public health strategies.