To Vary or Not To Vary: A Flexible Empirical Bayes Factor for Testing Variance Components (2508.01403v1)

Abstract: Random effects are the gold standard for capturing structural heterogeneity in data, such as spatial dependencies, individual differences, or temporal dependencies. However, testing for their presence is challenging, as it involves a variance component constrained to be non-negative -- a boundary problem. This paper proposes a flexible empirical Bayes factor (EBF) for testing random effects. Rather than testing whether a variance component is zero, the EBF tests the equivalent hypothesis that all random effects are zero. Crucially, it avoids manual prior specification based on external knowledge, as the distribution of random effects is part of the model's lower level and estimated from the data -- yielding an "empirical" Bayes factor. The EBF uses a Savage-Dickey density ratio, allowing all random effects to be tested using only the full model fit. This eliminates the need to fit multiple models with different combinations of random effects. Simulations on synthetic data evaluate the criterion's general behavior. To demonstrate its flexibility, the EBF is applied to generalized linear crossed mixed models, spatial random effects models, dynamic structural equation models, random intercept cross-lagged panel models, and nonlinear mixed effects models.