Prior-free cosmological parameter estimation of Cosmicflows-4

Abstract: As tracers of the underlying mass distributions, galaxies' peculiar velocities are valuable probes of the Universe, allowing us to measure the Hubble constant or to map the large scale structure and its dynamics. Yet, catalogs of peculiar velocities are noisy, scarce and prone to various interpretation biases. We aim to measure the bulk flow and the Hubble constant directly from the largest available sample of peculiar velocities, and without imposing a cosmological prior on the velocity field. To address these issues, we analyze the Cosmicflows-4 catalog, the most extensive catalog of galaxy peculiar velocities, reaching a redshift $z=0.1$. Specifically, we construct a forward modeling approach assuming only a flat Universe, which reconstructs the radial and bulk flows of the velocity field directly from measurements of peculiar velocities. Our method accurately recovers cosmological parameters within a radius of $120\ \mathrm{Mpc/h}$ that can then be compared with the predictions from $\Lambda{\rm CDM}$. Apart from a $3\sigma$ tension with $\Lambda{\rm CDM}$ on the magnitude around $120\ \mathrm{Mpc/h}$ associated with a $4\sigma$ tension on the supergalactic $X$ direction, we find a general agreement between the standard model and the observations. Lastly, our analysis suggests a Hubble constant value of approximately $75.8\pm0.4\ \mathrm{km/s/Mpc}$, exacerbating (or independently confirming) the existing ``Hubble tension", however, for the first time accomplished with the largest set of peculiar velocities in existence.