Gold after Randomized Sand: Model-X Split Knockoffs for Controlled Transformation Selection (2507.01732v1)

Abstract: Controlling the False Discovery Rate (FDR) in variable selection is crucial for reproducibility and preventing over-selection, particularly with the increasing prevalence of predictive modeling. The Split Knockoff method, a recent extension of the canonical Knockoffs framework, offers finite-sample FDR control for selecting sparse transformations, finding applications across signal processing, economics, information technology, and the life sciences. However, its current formulation is limited to fixed design settings, restricting its use to linear models. The question of whether it can be generalized to random designs, thereby accommodating a broader range of models beyond the linear case -- similar to the Model-X Knockoff framework -- remains unanswered. A major challenge in addressing transformational sparsity within random design settings lies in reconciling the combination of a random design with a deterministic transformation. To overcome this limitation, we propose the Model-X Split Knockoff method. Our method achieves FDR control for transformation selection in random designs, bridging the gap between existing approaches. This is accomplished by introducing an auxiliary randomized design that interacts with both the existing random design and the deterministic transformation, enabling the construction of Model-X Split Knockoffs. Like the classical Model-X framework, our method provides provable finite-sample FDR control under known or accurately estimated covariate distributions, regardless of the conditional distribution of the response. Importantly, it guarantees at least the same selection power as Model-X Knockoffs when both are applicable. Empirical studies, including simulations and real-world applications to Alzheimer's disease imaging and university ranking analysis, demonstrate robust FDR control and suggest improved selection power over the original Model-X approach.