Parenthood Penalty in Russia: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size (2506.11858v1)

Abstract: The present study aimed to improve upon the existing correlational literature on the parenthood penalty in Russia. An instrumental variables approach based on sibling sex composition and multiple births was employed alongside difference-in-differences designs to analyze rich census and longitudinal datasets. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to provide causal estimates of the effect of fertility decisions on subsequent labor market outcomes for mothers and fathers in contemporary Russia. The study's primary finding is that, in contrast to the approximately 10 percent long-term motherhood penalty observed in developed countries, the causal impact of childbearing on women's employment in Russia is most significant in the first year after birth, reducing employment by around 15 percent. This penalty then rapidly declines to a modest 3 percent once children reach school age. The analysis indicates an absence of a systematic fatherhood penalty in terms of employment, although a modest increase in labor supply is observed.