Regularized Estimation of the Loading Matrix in Factor Models for High-Dimensional Time Series (2506.11232v1)

Abstract: High-dimensional data analysis using traditional models suffers from overparameterization. Two types of techniques are commonly used to reduce the number of parameters - regularization and dimension reduction. In this project, we combine them by imposing a sparse factor structure and propose a regularized estimator to further reduce the number of parameters in factor models. A challenge limiting the widespread application of factor models is that factors are hard to interpret, as both factors and the loading matrix are unobserved. To address this, we introduce a penalty term when estimating the loading matrix for a sparse estimate. As a result, each factor only drives a smaller subset of time series that exhibit the strongest correlation, improving the factor interpretability. The theoretical properties of the proposed estimator are investigated. The simulation results are presented to confirm that our algorithm performs well. We apply our method to Hawaii tourism data. The results indicate that two groups drive the number of domestic tourists in Hawaii: visitors from high-latitude states (factor 1) and visitors from inland or low-latitude states (factor 2). It reveals two main reasons people visit Hawaii: (1) to escape the cold and (2) to enjoy the beach and water activities.