On the Bernstein-smoothed lower-tail Spearman's rho estimator (2506.08857v1)

Abstract: This note develops a Bernstein estimator for lower-tail Spearman's rho and establishes its strong consistency and asymptotic normality under mild regularity conditions. Smoothing the empirical copula yields a strictly smaller mean squared error (MSE) in tail regions by lowering sampling variance relative to the classical Spearman's rho estimator. A Monte Carlo simulation experiment with the Farlie--Gumbel--Morgenstern copula demonstrates variance reductions that translate into lower MSE estimates (up to $\sim 70\%$ lower) at deep-tail thresholds under weak to moderate dependence and small sample sizes. To facilitate reproducibility of the findings, the R code that generated all simulation results is readily accessible online.