Model Merging is Secretly Certifiable: Non-Vacuous Generalisation Bounds for Low-Shot Learning (2505.15798v1)

Abstract: Certifying the IID generalisation ability of deep networks is the first of many requirements for trusting AI in high-stakes applications from medicine to security. However, when instantiating generalisation bounds for deep networks it remains challenging to obtain non-vacuous guarantees, especially when applying contemporary large models on the small scale data prevalent in such high-stakes fields. In this paper, we draw a novel connection between a family of learning methods based on model fusion and generalisation certificates, and surprisingly show that with minor adjustment several existing learning strategies already provide non-trivial generalisation guarantees. Essentially, by focusing on data-driven learning of downstream tasks by fusion rather than fine-tuning, the certified generalisation gap becomes tiny and independent of the base network size, facilitating its certification. Our results show for the first time non-trivial generalisation guarantees for learning with as low as 100 examples, while using vision models such as VIT-B and LLMs such as mistral-7B. This observation is significant as it has immediate implications for facilitating the certification of existing systems as trustworthy, and opens up new directions for research at the intersection of practice and theory.