On the Need for a Statistical Foundation in Scenario-Based Testing of Autonomous Vehicles

Abstract: Scenario-based testing has emerged as a common method for autonomous vehicles (AVs) safety, offering a more efficient alternative to mile-based testing by focusing on high-risk scenarios. However, fundamental questions persist regarding its stopping rules, residual risk estimation, debug effectiveness, and the impact of simulation fidelity on safety claims. This paper argues that a rigorous statistical foundation is essential to address these challenges and enable rigorous safety assurance. By drawing parallels between AV testing and traditional software testing methodologies, we identify shared research gaps and reusable solutions. We propose proof-of-concept models to quantify the probability of failure per scenario (pfs) and evaluate testing effectiveness under varying conditions. Our analysis reveals that neither scenario-based nor mile-based testing universally outperforms the other. Furthermore, we introduce Risk Estimation Fidelity (REF), a novel metric to certify the alignment of synthetic and real-world testing outcomes, ensuring simulation-based safety claims are statistically defensible.