Simple Inference on a Simplex-Valued Weight (2501.15692v1)

Abstract: In many applications, the parameter of interest involves a simplex-valued weight which is identified as a solution to an optimization problem. Examples include synthetic control methods with group-level weights and various methods of model averaging and forecast combination. The simplex constraint on the weight poses a challenge in statistical inference due to the constraint potentially binding. In this paper, we propose a simple method of constructing a confidence set for the weight and prove that the method is asymptotically uniformly valid. The procedure does not require tuning parameters or simulations to compute critical values. The confidence set accommodates both the cases of point-identification or set-identification of the weight. We illustrate the method with an empirical example.