Bioenergetic trophic trade-offs determine mass-dependent extinction thresholds across the Cenozoic

Abstract: Body size drives the energetic demands of organisms, constraining trophic interactions between species and playing a significant role in shaping the feasibility of species' populations in a community. On macroevolutionary timescales, these demands feed back to shape the selective landscape driving the evolution of body size and diet. We develop a theoretical framework for a three-level trophic food chain -- typical for terrestrial mammalian ecosystems -- premised on bioenergetic trade-offs to explore mammalian population dynamics. Our results show that interactions between predators, prey, and external subsidies generate instabilities linked to body size extrema, corresponding to observed limits of predator size and diet. These instabilities generate size-dependent constraints on coexistence and highlight a feasibility range for carnivore size between 40 to 110 kg, encompassing the mean body size of terrestrial Cenozoic hypercarnivores. Finally, we show that predator dietary generalization confers a selective advantage to larger carnivores, which then declines at megapredator body sizes, aligning with diet breadth estimates for contemporary and Pleistocene species. Our framework underscores the importance of understanding macroevolutionary constraints through the lens of ecological pressures, where the selective forces shaping and reshaping the dynamics of communities can be explored.