On the Generalization Properties of Deep Learning for Aircraft Fuel Flow Estimation Models

Abstract: Accurately estimating aircraft fuel flow is essential for evaluating new procedures, designing next-generation aircraft, and monitoring the environmental impact of current aviation practices. This paper investigates the generalization capabilities of deep learning models in predicting fuel consumption, focusing particularly on their performance for aircraft types absent from the training data. We propose a novel methodology that integrates neural network architectures with domain generalization techniques to enhance robustness and reliability across a wide range of aircraft. A comprehensive dataset containing 101 different aircraft types, separated into training and generalization sets, with each aircraft type set containing 1,000 flights. We employed the base of aircraft data (BADA) model for fuel flow estimates, introduced a pseudo-distance metric to assess aircraft type similarity, and explored various sampling strategies to optimize model performance in data-sparse regions. Our results reveal that for previously unseen aircraft types, the introduction of noise into aircraft and engine parameters improved model generalization. The model is able to generalize with acceptable mean absolute percentage error between 2\% and 10\% for aircraft close to existing aircraft, while performance is below 1\% error for known aircraft in the training set. This study highlights the potential of combining domain-specific insights with advanced machine learning techniques to develop scalable, accurate, and generalizable fuel flow estimation models.