Modelling and analysis of multi-timescale uncertainty in energy system planning

Abstract: Recent developments in decomposition methods for multi-stage stochastic programming with block separable recourse enable the solution to large-scale stochastic programs with multi-timescale uncertainty. Multi-timescale uncertainty is important in energy system planning problems. Therefore, the proposed algorithms were applied to energy system planning problems to demonstrate their performance. However, the impact of multi-timescale uncertainty on energy system planning is not sufficiently analysed. In this paper, we address this research gap by comprehensively modelling and analysing short-term and long-term uncertainty in energy system planning. We use the REORIENT model to conduct the analysis. We also propose a parallel stabilised Benders decomposition as an alternative solution method to existing methods. We analyse the multi-timescale uncertainty regarding stability, the value of the stochastic solution, the rolling horizon value of the stochastic solutions and the planning decisions. The results show that (1) including multi-timescale uncertainty yields an increase in the value of the stochastic solutions, (2) long-term uncertainty in the right-hand side parameters affects the solution structure more than cost coefficient uncertainty, (3) parallel stabilised Benders decomposition is up to 7.5 times faster than the serial version.