Empirical Bayes for Dynamic Bayesian Networks Using Generalized Variational Inference (2406.17831v2)

Abstract: In this work, we demonstrate the Empirical Bayes approach to learning a Dynamic Bayesian Network. By starting with several point estimates of structure and weights, we can use a data-driven prior to subsequently obtain a model to quantify uncertainty. This approach uses a recent development of Generalized Variational Inference, and indicates the potential of sampling the uncertainty of a mixture of DAG structures as well as a parameter posterior.