Analysing radio pulsar timing noise with a Kalman filter: a demonstration involving PSR J1359$-$6038

Abstract: In the standard two-component crust-superfluid model of a neutron star, timing noise can arise when the two components are perturbed by stochastic torques. Here it is demonstrated how to analyse fluctuations in radio pulse times of arrival with a Kalman filter to measure physical properties of the two-component model, including the crust-superfluid coupling time-scale and the variances of the crust and superfluid torques. The analysis technique, validated previously on synthetic data, is applied to observations with the Molonglo Observatory Synthesis Telescope of the representative pulsar PSR J1359$-$6038. It is shown that the two-component model is preferred to a one-component model, with log Bayes factor $6.81 \pm 0.02$. The coupling time-scale and the torque variances on the crust and superfluid are measured with $90\%$ confidence to be $10^{7.1^{+0.8}_{-0.5}}$ $\rm{s}$ and $10^{-24.0^{+0.4}_{-5.6}}$ $\rm{rad^2~s^{-3}}$ and $10^{-21.7^{+3.5}_{-0.9}}$ $\rm{rad^2~s^{-3}}$ respectively.