Atmospheric chemistry surrogate modeling with sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (2401.06108v1)

Abstract: Modeling atmospheric chemistry is computationally expensive and limits the widespread use of atmospheric chemical transport models. This computational cost arises from solving high-dimensional systems of stiff differential equations. Previous work has demonstrated the promise of ML to accelerate air quality model simulations but has suffered from numerical instability during long-term simulations. This may be because previous ML-based efforts have relied on explicit Euler time integration -- which is known to be unstable for stiff systems -- and have used neural networks which are prone to overfitting. We hypothesize that the creation of parsimonious models combined with modern numerical integration techniques can overcome this limitation. Using a small-scale photochemical mechanism to explore the potential of these methods, we have created a machine-learned surrogate by (1) reducing dimensionality using singular value decomposition to create an interpretably-compressed low-dimensional latent space, and (2) using Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) to create a differential-equation-based representation of the underlying chemical dynamics in the compressed latent space with reduced numerical stiffness. The root mean square error of the ML model prediction for ozone concentration over nine days is 37.8% of the root mean concentration across all simulations in our testing dataset. The surrogate model is 11$\times$ faster with 12$\times$ fewer integration timesteps compared to the reference model and is numerically stable in all tested simulations. Overall, we find that SINDy can be used to create fast, stable, and accurate surrogates of a simple photochemical mechanism. In future work, we will explore the application of this method to more detailed mechanisms and their use in large-scale simulations.