Reconstructing physical parameters from template gravitational wave spectra at LISA: first order phase transitions

Abstract: A gravitational wave background from a first order phase transition in the early universe may be observable at millihertz gravitational wave (GW) detectors such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). In this paper we introduce and test a method for investigating LISA's sensitivity to gravitational waves from a first order phase transition using parametrised templates as an approximation to a more complete physical model. The motivation for developing the method is to provide a less computationally intensive way to perform Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference on the thermodynamic parameters of a first order phase transition, or on generally computationally intensive models. Starting from a map between the physical parameters and the parameters of an empirical template, we first construct a prior on the empirical parameters that contains the necessary information about the physical parameters; we then use the inverse mapping to reconstruct approximate posteriors on the physical parameters from a fast MCMC on the empirical template. We test the method on a double broken power law approximation to spectra in the sound shell model. The reconstruction method substantially reduces the proposal evaluation time, and despite requiring some precomputing of the mapping, this method is still cost-effective overall. In two test cases, with signal-to-noise $\sim 40$, the method recovers the physical parameters and the spectrum of the injected gravitational wave power spectrum to $95\%$ confidence. In previous Fisher matrix analysis we found the phase boundary speed $v_{\rm w}$ was expected to be the best constrained of the thermodynamic parameters. In this work, for an injected phase transition GW power spectrum with $v_{\rm w} = 0.55$, with a direct sample on the thermodynamic parameters we recover $0.630^{+0.17}_{-0.059}$ and for our reconstructed sample $0.646^{+0.098}_{-0.075}$.