Mass Upper Bounds for Over 50 Kepler Planets Using Low-S/N Transit Timing Variations

Abstract: Prospects for expanding the available mass measurements of the Kepler sample are limited. Planet masses have typically been inferred via radial velocity (RV) measurements of the host star or time-series modeling of transit timing variations (TTVs) in multiplanet systems; however, the majority of Kepler hosts are too dim for RV follow-up, and only a select number of systems have strong enough TTVs for time-series modeling. Here, we develop a method of constraining planet mass in multiplanet systems using low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) TTVs. For a sample of 175 planets in 79 multiplanet systems from the California-Kepler Survey, we infer posteriors on planet mass using publicly available TTV time-series from Kepler. For 53 planets ($>30\%$ of our sample), low-S/N TTVs yield informative upper bounds on planet mass, i.e., the mass constraint strongly deviates from the prior on mass and yields a physically reasonable bulk composition. For 25 small planets, low-S/N TTVs favor volatile-rich compositions. Where available, low-S/N TTV-based mass constraints are consistent with RV-derived masses. TTV time-series are publicly available for each Kepler planet, and the compactness of Kepler systems makes TTV-based constraints informative for a substantial fraction of multiplanet systems. Leveraging low-S/N TTVs offers a valuable path toward increasing the available mass constraints of the Kepler sample.