COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy and Information Diffusion: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

Abstract: Despite the unprecedented success in the rapid development of several effective vaccines against the Cov-SARS-2, global vaccination rollout efforts suffer from vaccine distribution inequality and vaccine acceptance, leading to insufficient public immunity provided by the vaccine products. While a major current focus in vaccine acceptance research is how to model and inform vaccine acceptance based on social-demographic parameters, characteristics of vaccine acceptance are not well understood and in particular, it is not known whether and how information diffusion influences vaccine acceptance. This study examines how information diffusion can change vaccine acceptance by developing a comprehensive computational model with an agent-based simulation technique to overcome the modeling and quantification complexity associated with socio-demographics, vaccine types, population statistics, and information diffusion. Our analyses, calibrated by the vaccine acceptance survey data from the provinces and territories of Canada, provide clear evidence that the propagation of information can greatly influence vaccine acceptance rates. The results illustrate that spread of negative messages about the COVID-19 vaccines can cause significant vaccine hesitancy that challenges the goal of a high public immunity provided by the vaccines. Our findings might help solve the vaccine hesitancy problem by focusing more on individuals' opinions and behavior.