Prediction of Solar Proton Events with Machine Learning: Comparison with Operational Forecasts and "All-Clear" Perspectives (2107.03911v2)

Abstract: Solar Energetic Particle events (SEPs) are among the most dangerous transient phenomena of solar activity. As hazardous radiation, SEPs may affect the health of astronauts in outer space and adversely impact current and future space exploration. In this paper, we consider the problem of daily prediction of Solar Proton Events (SPEs) based on the characteristics of the magnetic fields in solar Active Regions (ARs), preceding soft X-ray and proton fluxes, and statistics of solar radio bursts. The ML algorithm uses an artificial neural network of custom architecture designed for whole-Sun input. The predictions of the ML model are compared with the SWPC NOAA operational forecasts of SPEs. Our preliminary results indicate that 1) for the AR-based predictions, it is necessary to take into account ARs at the western limb and on the far side of the Sun; 2) characteristics of the preceding proton flux represent the most valuable input for prediction; 3) daily median characteristics of ARs and the counts of type II, III, and IV radio bursts may be excluded from the forecast without performance loss; and 4) ML-based forecasts outperform SWPC NOAA forecasts in situations in which missing SPE events is very undesirable. The introduced approach indicates the possibility of developing robust "all-clear" SPE forecasts by employing machine learning methods.