Nonparametric fusion learning: synthesize inferences from diverse sources using depth confidence distribution (2011.07047v1)

Abstract: Fusion learning refers to synthesizing inferences from multiple sources or studies to provide more effective inference and prediction than from any individual source or study alone. Most existing methods for synthesizing inferences rely on parametric model assumptions, such as normality, which often do not hold in practice. In this paper, we propose a general nonparametric fusion learning framework for synthesizing inferences of the target parameter from multiple sources. The main tool underlying the proposed framework is the notion of depth confidence distribution (depth-CD), which is also developed in this paper. Broadly speaking, a depth-CD is a data-driven nonparametric summary distribution of inferential information for the target parameter. We show that a depth-CD is a useful inferential tool and, moreover, is an omnibus form of confidence regions (or p-values), whose contours of level sets shrink toward the true parameter value. The proposed fusion learning approach combines depth-CDs from the individual studies, with each depth-CD constructed by nonparametric bootstrap and data depth. This approach is shown to be efficient, general and robust. Specifically, it achieves high-order accuracy and Bahadur efficiency under suitably chosen combining elements. It allows the model or inference structure to be different among individual studies. And it readily adapts to heterogeneous studies with a broad range of complex and irregular settings. This property enables it to utilize indirect evidence from incomplete studies to gain efficiency in the overall inference. The advantages of the proposed approach are demonstrated simulations and in a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) study of aircraft landing performance.