Superspreading events suggest aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by accumulation in enclosed spaces (2007.14807v3)

Abstract: Viral transmission pathways have profound implications for public safety; it is thus imperative to establish a complete understanding of viable infectious avenues. Mounting evidence suggests SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted via the air; however, this has not yet been demonstrated. Here we quantitatively analyze virion accumulation by accounting for aerosolized virion emission and destabilization. Reported superspreading events analyzed within this framework point towards aerosol mediated transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Virion exposure calculated for these events is found to trace out a single value, suggesting a universal minimum infective dose (MID) via aerosol that is comparable to the MIDs measured for other respiratory viruses; thus, the consistent infectious exposure levels and their commensurability to known aerosol-MIDs establishes the plausibility of aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Using filtration at a rate exceeding the destabilization rate of aerosolized SARS-CoV-2 can reduce exposure below this infective dose.