The 1995-2018 Global Evolution of the Network of Amicable and Hostile Relations Among Nation-States

Abstract: We draw on the data collected by the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System on millions of international and regional public news stories, and this system's indicators of the orientation toward a specific nation-state. We construct the networks of international amicable and hostile relations among nation-states that occur in specific time-periods in order to study the global evolution of the network of such international appraisals. Our analysis presents evidence of an evolution of the structure of this network and a model of the probabilistic micro-dynamics of the alterations of international appraisals during the 1995-2018 span of the available data. Our research provides empirical findings on long-standing debates in the interdisciplinary field of work on Structural Balance Theory. Also remarkably, we find that the trajectory of the Frobenius norm of sequential transition probabilities, which govern the evolution of international appraisals among nations, dramatically stabilizes.