The Micro-Randomized Trial for Developing Digital Interventions: Data Analysis Methods

Abstract: Although there is much excitement surrounding the use of mobile and wearable technology for the purposes of delivering interventions as people go through their day-to-day lives, data analysis methods for constructing and optimizing digital interventions lag behind. Here, we elucidate data analysis methods for primary and secondary analyses of micro-randomized trials (MRTs), an experimental design to optimize digital just-in-time adaptive interventions. We provide a definition of causal "excursion" effects suitable for use in digital intervention development. We introduce the weighted and centered least-squares (WCLS) estimator which provides consistent causal excursion effect estimators for digital interventions from MRT data. We describe how the WCLS estimator along with associated test statistics can be obtained using standard statistical software such as SAS or R. Throughout we use HeartSteps, an MRT designed to increase physical activity among sedentary individuals, to illustrate potential primary and secondary analyses.