Natural gas shortages during the "coal-to-gas" transition in China have caused a large redistribution of air pollution

Abstract: The Chinese "coal-to-gas" strategy aims at reducing coal consumption and related air pollution by promoting the use of clean and low carbon fuels in northern China. Here we show that on top of meteorological influences, these measures achieved an average decrease of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations of ~14% during winter 2017 in Beijing and surrounding areas (the "2+26" pilot cities). However, the localized air quality improvement was accompanied by a contemporaneous ~15% upsurge of PM2.5 concentrations over large areas in southern China. We find that the pollution transfer that resulted from a shift in emissions was caused by a natural gas shortage in the south due to the "coal-to-gas" transition in the north. The overall shortage of natural gas greatly jeopardized the air quality benefits of the "coal-to-gas" strategy in winter 2017 and reflects structural challenges and potential threats in China's clean energy transition.