Statistical Verification of Autonomous Systems using Surrogate Models and Conformal Inference

Abstract: In this paper, we propose conformal inference based approach for statistical verification of CPS models. Cyber-physical systems (CPS) such as autonomous vehicles, avionic systems, and medical devices operate in highly uncertain environments. This uncertainty is typically modeled using a finite number of parameters or input signals. Given a system specification in Signal Temporal Logic (STL), we would like to verify that for all (infinite) values of the model parameters/input signals, the system satisfies its specification. Unfortunately, this problem is undecidable in general. {\em Statistical model checking} (SMC) offers a solution by providing guarantees on the correctness of CPS models by statistically reasoning on model simulations. We propose a new approach for statistical verification of CPS models for user-provided distribution on the model parameters. Our technique uses model simulations to learn {\em surrogate models}, and uses {\em conformal inference} to provide probabilistic guarantees on the satisfaction of a given STL property. Additionally, we can provide prediction intervals containing the quantitative satisfaction values of the given STL property for any user-specified confidence level. We also propose a refinement procedure based on Gaussian Process (GP)-based surrogate models for obtaining fine-grained probabilistic guarantees over sub-regions in the parameter space. This in turn enables the CPS designer to choose assured validity domains in the parameter space for safety-critical applications. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our technique on several CPS models.