Predicting event attendance exploring social influence

Abstract: The problem of predicting people's participation in real-world events has received considerable attention as it offers valuable insights for human behavior analysis and event-related advertisement. Today social networks (e.g. Twitter) widely reflect large popular events where people discuss their interest with friends. Event participants usually stimulate friends to join the event which propagates a social influence in the network. In this paper, we propose to model the social influence of friends on event attendance. We consider non-geotagged posts besides structures of social groups to infer users' attendance. To leverage the information on network topology we apply some of recent graph embedding techniques such as node2vec, HARP and Poincar`e. We describe the approach followed to design the feature space and feed it to a neural network. The performance evaluation is conducted using two large music festivals datasets, namely the VFestival and Creamfields. The experimental results show that our classifier outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline with 89% accuracy observed for the VFestival dataset.