Latent Gaussian Count Time Series

Abstract: This paper develops the theory and methods for modeling a stationary count time series via Gaussian transformations. The techniques use a latent Gaussian process and a distributional transformation to construct stationary series with very flexible correlation features that can have any pre-specified marginal distribution, including the classical Poisson, generalized Poisson, negative binomial, and binomial structures. Gaussian pseudo-likelihood and implied Yule-Walker estimation paradigms, based on the autocovariance function of the count series, are developed via a new Hermite expansion. Particle filtering and sequential Monte Carlo methods are used to conduct likelihood estimation. Connections to state space models are made. Our estimation approaches are evaluated in a simulation study and the methods are used to analyze a count series of weekly retail sales.