Extreme Value Analysis of Solar Flare Events

Abstract: Space weather events such as solar flares can be harmful for life and infrastructure on earth or in near-earth orbit. In this paper we employ extreme value theory (EVT) to model extreme solar flare events; EVT offers the appropriate tools for the study and estimation of probabilities for extrapolation to ranges outside of those that have already been observed. In the past such phenomena have been modelled as following a power law which may gives poor estimates of such events due to overestimation. The data used in the study were X-ray fluxes from NOAA/GOES and the expected return levels for Carrington or Halloween like events were calculated with the outcome that the existing data predict similar events happening in 110 and 38 years respectively.