Orderings of weakly correlated random variables, and prime number races with many contestants

Abstract: We investigate the race between prime numbers in many residue classes modulo $q$, assuming the standard conjectures GRH and LI. Among our results we exhibit, for the first time, prime races modulo $q$ with $n$ competitor classes where the biases do not dissolve when $n, q\to \infty$. We also study the leaders in the prime number race, obtaining asymptotic formulae for logarithmic densities when the number of competitors can be as large as a power of $q$, whereas previous methods could only allow a power of $\log q$. The proofs use harmonic analysis related to the Hardy--Littlewood circle method to control the average size of correlations in prime number races. They also use various probabilistic tools, including an exchangeable pairs version of Stein's method, normal comparison tools, and conditioning arguments. In the process we derive some general results about orderings of weakly correlated random variables, which may be of independent interest.