Pre-Flare Dynamics of Sunspot Groups (1405.7485v1)

Abstract: Several papers provide evidences that the most probable sites of flare onset are the regions of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in solar active regions. Besides the localization of flare producing areas the present work intends to reveal the characteristic temporal variations in these regions prior to flares. This study uses sunspot data instead of magnetograms, it follows the behaviour of a suitable defined proxy measure representing the horizontal magnetic field gradient. The source of the data is the SDD (SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Data) sunspot catalogue. The most promising pre-flare signatures are the following properties of the gradient variation: i) steep increase, ii) high maximum, iii) significant fluctuation and iv) a gradual decrease between the maximum and the flare onset which can be related to the "pull mode" of the current layer. These properties may yield a tool for the assessment of flare probability and intensity within the next 8-10 hours.