Assess the improbability of the emergence of complex life

Ascertain the probability that complex life—such as eukaryotes and multicellular organisms—emerges from proposed pathways starting with small-molecule collectively autocatalytic sets and progressing through prokaryotes, determining whether such emergence is highly improbable or not.

Background

The authors outline potential experimental and theoretical paths from small-molecule autocatalytic sets to prokaryotes and beyond, noting that multicellularity arose multiple times. They explicitly state uncertainty about how improbable the emergence of complex life is, highlighting a key question for origins-of-life and astrobiology research.

References

Is the emergence of complex life so very improbable? We do not know. Perhaps not.

— Is the Emergence of Life an Expected Phase Transition in the Evolving Universe?  (2401.09514 - Kauffman et al., 2024) in Part IV, New Observations and Experiments, item iv