Determine the timing of any delayed tidal disruption event in IGR J12580+0134

Determine the exact timing of a potential delayed tidal disruption event in the nucleus of NGC 4845 (source IGR J12580+0134) by constraining currently unknown system parameters, specifically the post-disruption stellar mass remaining after the 2010–2011 event and the spin of the central supermassive black hole, whose uncertainty prevents predictive scheduling of such an event.

Background

The paper discusses a possible recurrence of activity in IGR J12580+0134 inferred from radio outburst cycles and theoretical considerations of partial tidal disruptions that can alter orbital periods. Follow-up XMM-Newton and NuSTAR observations in 2021–2022 did not reveal a new TDE, and the authors argue that a delayed TDE could still occur due to changes in the stripped star’s properties and orbit.

However, the authors explicitly note that key parameters governing the recurrence—most notably the residual stellar mass after the 2010–2011 tidal disruption and the supermassive black hole’s spin—are not known, which prevents prediction of an exact occurrence time for any future TDE in this system.