Efficiency Form of the Cryptocurrency Market

Ascertain whether the cryptocurrency market exhibits at least weak-form efficiency and possibly semi-strong-form efficiency, but not strong-form efficiency, with the efficiency form depending on the specific crypto-assets and time periods considered.

Background

In assessing the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) for cryptocurrencies, the authors review Fama’s conditions and forms (weak, semi-strong, strong), discuss behavioral and informational features unique to crypto (e.g., social media influence, insider knowledge), and perform empirical tests including SMA-based strategy comparisons.

Based on their analysis, they propose a conjecture about the prevailing efficiency form in cryptocurrency markets, suggesting weak-form efficiency at minimum and possibly semi-strong efficiency, while strong-form efficiency appears unlikely.

References

We can conjecture that the cryptocurrency market efficiency form is at least weak, and possibly semi-strong, depending on the crypto-assets and periods, but hardly strong.

— On Bitcoin Price Prediction  (2504.18982 - Bournassenko, 26 Apr 2025) in Subsubsection “Efficient Market Hypothesis Adaptation to Cryptocurrencies” (Section “The Cryptocurrency Market is Efficient”)