Almost-sure convergence from approximation and CHT
Determine whether the approximation property and countable additivity on conditional hitting times together imply almost-sure convergence to the truth for every Borel event and every arbitrary finitely additive probability function satisfying the positivity condition.
References
Whether approximation and CHT together imply almost-sure convergence to the truth for an arbitrary probability function is, so far as we know, open.
— Almost-Uniform Bayesian Convergence to the Truth Is Not Characterized by Countable Additivity on Conditional Hitting Times
(2609.20683 - Khan et al., 17 Sep 2026) in Remark 5.??, Section 5, and Section 9, “What Survives and What Remains Open”
What condition characterizes almost-sure convergence to the truth? \citet[p.~412]{nielsen2021convergence} poses the problem, and \cref{sec:as-ca} eliminates one candidate.
— Almost-Uniform Bayesian Convergence to the Truth Is Not Characterized by Countable Additivity on Conditional Hitting Times
(2609.20683 - Khan et al., 17 Sep 2026) in Section 8.1, “The Conjecture,” and Section 9
Formulating a minimal and behaviorally transparent version of that diagonal condition remains an open problem.
— Almost-Uniform Bayesian Convergence to the Truth Is Not Characterized by Countable Additivity on Conditional Hitting Times
(2609.20683 - Khan et al., 17 Sep 2026) in Section 8, “A Diagonal Strengthening of CHT,” and Section 9