Almost-sure convergence from approximation and CHT

Determine whether the approximation property and countable additivity on conditional hitting times together imply almost-sure convergence to the truth for every Borel event and every arbitrary finitely additive probability function satisfying the positivity condition.

Background

The paper refutes the claimed characterization of almost-uniform convergence by showing that the approximation property and CHT are not jointly sufficient for almost-uniform convergence. This invalidates the published proof of Nielsen’s corollary asserting that the same two conditions imply almost-sure convergence to the truth.

The authors establish the almost-sure conclusion only for the particular ultrafilter-based family containing their counterexample, where CHT alone suffices. Whether the implication holds for arbitrary finitely additive probability functions remains unresolved.

References

Whether approximation and CHT together imply almost-sure convergence to the truth for an arbitrary probability function is, so far as we know, open.

— Almost-Uniform Bayesian Convergence to the Truth Is Not Characterized by Countable Additivity on Conditional Hitting Times  (2609.20683 - Khan et al., 17 Sep 2026) in Remark 5.??, Section 5, and Section 9, “What Survives and What Remains Open”

What condition characterizes almost-sure convergence to the truth? \citet[p.~412]{nielsen2021convergence} poses the problem, and \cref{sec:as-ca} eliminates one candidate.

— Almost-Uniform Bayesian Convergence to the Truth Is Not Characterized by Countable Additivity on Conditional Hitting Times  (2609.20683 - Khan et al., 17 Sep 2026) in Section 8.1, “The Conjecture,” and Section 9

Formulating a minimal and behaviorally transparent version of that diagonal condition remains an open problem.

— Almost-Uniform Bayesian Convergence to the Truth Is Not Characterized by Countable Additivity on Conditional Hitting Times  (2609.20683 - Khan et al., 17 Sep 2026) in Section 8, “A Diagonal Strengthening of CHT,” and Section 9