Self-Normalization for CUSUM-based Change Detection in Locally Stationary Time Series (2509.07112v1)

Abstract: A novel self-normalization procedure for CUSUM-based change detection in the mean of a locally stationary time series is introduced. Classical self-normalization relies on the factorization of a constant long-run variance and a stochastic factor. In this case, the CUSUM statistic can be divided by another statistic proportional to the long-run variance, so that the latter cancels. Thereby, a tedious estimation of the long-run variance can be avoided. Under local stationarity, the partial sum process converges to $\int_0^t \sigma(x) d B_x$ and no such factorization is possible. To overcome this obstacle, a self-normalized test statistic is constructed from a carefully designed bivariate partial-sum process. Weak convergence of the process is proven, and it is shown that the resulting self-normalized test attains asymptotic level $\alpha$ under the null hypothesis of no change, while being consistent against a broad class of alternatives. Extensive simulations demonstrate better finite-sample properties compared to existing methods. Applications to real data illustrate the method's practical effectiveness.