A Novel Hybrid Approach Using an Attention-Based Transformer + GRU Model for Predicting Cryptocurrency Prices

Abstract: In this article, we introduce a novel deep learning hybrid model that integrates attention Transformer and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) architectures to improve the accuracy of cryptocurrency price predictions. By combining the Transformer's strength in capturing long-range patterns with the GRU's ability to model short-term and sequential trends, the hybrid model provides a well-rounded approach to time series forecasting. We apply the model to predict the daily closing prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum based on historical data that include past prices, trading volumes, and the Fear and Greed index. We evaluate the performance of our proposed model by comparing it with four other machine learning models: two are non-sequential feedforward models: Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN) and General Regression Neural Network (GRNN), and two are bidirectional sequential memory-based models: Bidirectional Long-Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) and Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU). The performance of the model is assessed using several metrics, including Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), along with statistical validation through the nonparametric Friedman test followed by a post hoc Wilcoxon signed rank test. The results demonstrate that our hybrid model consistently achieves superior accuracy, highlighting its effectiveness for financial prediction tasks. These findings provide valuable insights for improving real-time decision making in cryptocurrency markets and support the growing use of hybrid deep learning models in financial analytics.