Orbit of a Possible Planet X (2410.18170v2)

Abstract: The plausibility of an unseen planet in the outer solar system, and the expected orbit and mass of such a planet, have long been a topic of inquiry and debate. We calculate the long-term orbital stability of distant TNOs, which allows us to expand the sample of objects that would carry dynamical information about a hypothetical unseen planet in the solar system. Using this expanded sample, we find statistically significant clustering at the $\sim 3 \sigma$ level for TNOs with semimajor axes $>170$ AU, in longitude of perihelion ($\varpi$), but not in inclination ($i$), argument of perihelion ($\omega$) or longitude of node ($\Omega$). Since a natural explanation for clustering in $\varpi$ is an unseen planet, we run 300 $n$-body simulations with the giant planets, a disk of test particles representing Kuiper belt objects, and an additional planet with varied initial conditions for its mass, semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination. Based on the distribution of test particles after $1-2$ Gyr, we compute relative likelihoods given the actual distribution of $\varpi$ as a function of semimajor axis for distant TNOs on stable orbits using a significantly larger sample than previous work. We find the best-fit unseen planet parameters to be: mass $m_p = 4.4\pm1.1\mathrm{\;M_{\oplus}}$, semimajor axis $a_p=290\pm30\mathrm{\;AU}$, eccentricity $e_p=0.29\pm0.13$, and inclination $i_p=6.8\pm5.0^{\circ}$. Only $0.06\%$ of the Brown & Batygin (2021) Planet Nine reference population produce probabilities within $1\sigma$ of the maximum within our quadrivariate model, indicating that our work identifies a distinct preferred region of parameter space for an unseen planet in the solar system.

• The paper presents rigorous n-body simulations that estimate Planet X’s parameters, suggesting a mass of 4.4 ± 1.1 Earth masses and a semimajor axis of 290 ± 30 AU.
• The study’s methodology leverages 300 simulations to reveal significant clustering in the longitude of perihelion among TNOs, supporting dynamical influences from an unseen planet.
• The findings challenge existing models by proposing a distinct orbital parameter space and emphasizing the need for future observations, such as those by the LSST.

An Examination of the Orbit of a Hypothetical Planet X

The paper "Orbit of a Possible Planet X" by Siraj, Chyba, and Tremaine addresses the longstanding hypothesis of an undiscovered massive planet in the outer reaches of our solar system, often colloquially referred to as Planet X or Planet Nine. This conjectural celestial body's presence has been suggested due to the peculiar clustering observed in the orbits of distant trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs).

To substantiate this hypothesis, the authors investigate the long-term orbital stability of distant TNOs, using these bodies as dynamical indicators of the potential influence of an unseen planet. They expand the known sample of objects with stable orbits which might be influenced by such a planet, identifying statistically significant clustering of TNOs at semimajor axes greater than 170 AU in the longitude of perihelion ($\varpi$) while observing no comparable clustering in other orbital parameters such as inclination ($i$), argument of perihelion ($\omega$), or longitude of the ascending node ($\Omega$).

The paper employs 300 n-body simulations accounting for the gravitational dynamics of the solar system's giant planets, incorporating a disk of test particles to simulate the Kuiper Belt, and testing various hypothetical planets with different mass, semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination. The simulations seek to evaluate the relative likelihoods of TNO distributions and provide robust statistical validation against observed TNO clustering.

Notably, the simulations predict the most likely parameters for this hypothetical planet: a mass of $4.4 \pm 1.1$ Earth masses, a semimajor axis of $290 \pm 30$ AU, an eccentricity of $0.29 \pm 0.13$, and an inclination of $6.8 \pm 5.0^{\circ}$. These parameters sharply contrast with much of the extant literature, offering a critical reevaluation of the hypothesized planet's characteristics.

The results signal that only 0.06% of the hypothetical reference population aligns with their statistical model's highest likelihood values, suggesting a distinct parameter space preference, thus potentially contradicting other models and observations proposing a more distant and massive planetary body.

Furthermore, the paper explores the observational and theoretical implications of such a discovery, considering the effect of an unseen planet on TNO orbital architectures, including the generation of high-inclination objects and the stability of established resonant configurations with Neptune. It also explores the methodological challenges of differentiating genuine dynamical clustering from observational biases and raises questions regarding the proposed planet's formation scenarios, potentially involving past scattering processes or dynamical friction.

Overall, the research contributes significantly to the discourse on dynamical architectures of the outer solar system. The findings are crucial for ongoing and future observational campaigns, such as those planned by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), which promises to either support or refute the presence of such a planet through vastly improved TNO discovery statistics. If verified, this discovery holds the potential to profoundly reshape our understanding of solar system dynamics and formation processes.