Large Language Models for Integrating Social Determinant of Health Data: A Case Study on Heart Failure 30-Day Readmission Prediction

Abstract: Social determinants of health (SDOH) $-$ the myriad of circumstances in which people live, grow, and age $-$ play an important role in health outcomes. However, existing outcome prediction models often only use proxies of SDOH as features. Recent open data initiatives present an opportunity to construct a more comprehensive view of SDOH, but manually integrating the most relevant data for individual patients becomes increasingly challenging as the volume and diversity of public SDOH data grows. LLMs have shown promise at automatically annotating structured data. Here, we conduct an end-to-end case study evaluating the feasibility of using LLMs to integrate SDOH data, and the utility of these SDOH features for clinical prediction. We first manually label 700+ variables from two publicly-accessible SDOH data sources to one of five semantic SDOH categories. Then, we benchmark performance of 9 open-source LLMs on this classification task. Finally, we train ML models to predict 30-day hospital readmission among 39k heart failure (HF) patients, and we compare the prediction performance of the categorized SDOH variables with standard clinical variables. Additionally, we investigate the impact of few-shot LLM prompting on LLM annotation performance, and perform a metadata ablation study on prompts to evaluate which information helps LLMs accurately annotate these variables. We find that some open-source LLMs can effectively, accurately annotate SDOH variables with zero-shot prompting without the need for fine-tuning. Crucially, when combined with standard clinical features, the LLM-annotated Neighborhood and Built Environment subset of the SDOH variables shows the best performance predicting 30-day readmission of HF patients.