Root Causing Prediction Anomalies Using Explainable AI

Abstract: This paper presents a novel application of explainable AI (XAI) for root-causing performance degradation in machine learning models that learn continuously from user engagement data. In such systems a single feature corruption can cause cascading feature, label and concept drifts. We have successfully applied this technique to improve the reliability of models used in personalized advertising. Performance degradation in such systems manifest as prediction anomalies in the models. These models are typically trained continuously using features that are produced by hundreds of real time data processing pipelines or derived from other upstream models. A failure in any of these pipelines or an instability in any of the upstream models can cause feature corruption, causing the model's predicted output to deviate from the actual output and the training data to become corrupted. The causal relationship between the features and the predicted output is complex, and root-causing is challenging due to the scale and dynamism of the system. We demonstrate how temporal shifts in the global feature importance distribution can effectively isolate the cause of a prediction anomaly, with better recall than model-to-feature correlation methods. The technique appears to be effective even when approximating the local feature importance using a simple perturbation-based method, and aggregating over a few thousand examples. We have found this technique to be a model-agnostic, cheap and effective way to monitor complex data pipelines in production and have deployed a system for continuously analyzing the global feature importance distribution of continuously trained models.