Quantifying Population Exposure to Long-term PM10: A City-wide Agent-based Assessment

Abstract: This study evaluates the health effects of long-term exposure to PM10 in Seoul. Building on the preliminary model Shin and Bithell (2019), an in-silico agent-based model (ABM) is used to simulate the travel patterns of individuals according to their origins and destinations. During the simulation, each person, with their inherent socio-economic attributes and allocated origin and destination location, is assumed to commute to and from the same places for 10 consecutive years. A nominal measure of their health is set to decrease whenever the concentration of PM10 exceeds the national standard. Sensitivity analysis on calibrated parameters reveals increased vulnerability among certain demographic groups, particularly those aged over 65 and under 15, with a significant health decline associated with road proximity. The study reveals a substantial health disparity after 7,000 simulation ticks (equivalent to 10 years), especially under scenarios of a 3% annual increase in pollution levels. Long-term exposure to PM10 has a significant impact on health vulnerabilities, despite initial resilience being minimal. The study emphasises the importance of future research that takes into account different pollution thresholds as well as more detailed models of population dynamics and pollution generation in order to better understand and mitigate the health effects of air pollution on diverse urban populations.