A Day-to-Day Dynamical Approach to the Most Likely User Equilibrium Problem

Abstract: The lack of a unique user equilibrium (UE) route flow in traffic assignment has posed a significant challenge to many transportation applications. The maximum-entropy principle, which advocates for the consistent selection of the most likely solution as a representative, is often used to address the challenge. Built on a recently proposed day-to-day (DTD) discrete-time dynamical model called cumulative logit (CULO), this study provides a new behavioral underpinning for the maximum-entropy UE (MEUE) route flow. It has been proven that CULO can reach a UE state without presuming travelers are perfectly rational. Here, we further establish that CULO always converges to the MEUE route flow if (i) travelers have zero prior information about routes and thus are forced to give all routes an equal choice probability, or (ii) all travelers gather information from the same source such that the so-called general proportionality condition is satisfied. Thus, CULO may be used as a practical solution algorithm for the MEUE problem. To put this idea into practice, we propose to eliminate the route enumeration requirement of the original CULO model through an iterative route discovery scheme. We also examine the discrete-time versions of four popular continuous-time dynamical models and compare them to CULO. The analysis shows that the replicator dynamic is the only one that has the potential to reach the MEUE solution with some regularity. The analytical results are confirmed through numerical experiments.