Multi-Agent Based Simulation for Investigating Electric Vehicle Adoption and Its Impacts on Electricity Distribution Grids and CO2 Emissions

Abstract: Electric vehicles are expected to significantly contribute to CO2-eq. emissions reduction, but the increasing number of EVs also introduces chal-lenges to the energy system, and to what extent it contributes to achieving cli-mate goals remains unknown. Static modeling and assumption-based simula-tions have been used for such investigation, but they cannot capture the realistic ecosystem dynamics. To fill the gap, this paper investigates the impacts of two adoption curves of private EVs on the electricity distribution grids and national climate goals. This paper develops a multi-agent based simulation with two adoption curves, the Traditional EV charging strategy, various EV models, driv-ing patterns, and CO2-eq. emission data to capture the full ecosystem dynamics during a long-term period from 2020 to 2032. The Danish 2030 climate goal and a Danish distribution network with 126 residential consumers are chosen as the case study. The results show that both EV adoption curves of 1 million and 775k EVs by 2030 will not satisfy the Danish climate goal of reducing transport sector emissions by 30% by 2030. The results also show that the current resi-dential electricity distribution grids cannot handle the load from increasing EVs. The first grid overload will occur in 2031 (around 16 and 24 months later for the 1 million and 775k EVs adopted by 2030) with a 67% share of EVs in the grid.